EU Support's Conditional Nature: A Multi-Method Analysis

• In Event: Nothing Compares 2 EU: Support and Skepticism for the EU

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamics of support for the European Union, emphasizing the varying impacts across different aspects of European integration. It employs data from the European Social Survey and Eurobarometer, integrating difference-in-differences with a three-level multilevel regression model. A key element of this analysis is the application of cleavage-based theories, which assess differences across individuals, regions, and countries in material and nonmaterial aspects. Cleavage-based theories are essential for understanding interactions across levels, revealing how socioeconomic and cultural factors at individual, regional, and national levels collectively shape public opinion on European integration. The use of difference-in-differences methods provides insights into the evolving nature of European integration, particularly, by comparing the pre- and post-Ukraine war periods. The study's robustness is enhanced through various checks, including a two-level model with fixed country effects, alternative indicator analyses, and heterogeneity assessments. By combining multilevel modeling, causal inference, and cleavage-based theories, the study disentangles the conditional nature of support for European integration, underscoring its reliance on specific dimensions and societal cleavages.

Authors

• Mads Dagnis Jensen, Copenhagen Business School

• Suen Wang, Aalborg University