Delegation and Fighting: Explaining the Rise in Internationalized Armed Conflict

• In Event: Third Parties, Military Intervention, and Civil Conflict

Abstract

Internationalized conflicts are the main drivers of a global increase of armed conflicts in the past years. Explaining internationalized armed conflicts hinges on understanding external support patterns for governments and rebel organizations. Internationalized conflicts are not a new phenomenon but the rising frequency of this type of conflict is puzzling. We explain this rise by looking at changing patterns of power in the international system and how the role of external support has changed over time. While external support could act as a sufficiently strong signal of resolve to substitute for openly fought conflict during the Cold War, less certain power configurations and novel security challenges today render external support and internationalized conflict more complementary. This complementarity describes a new path of escalation that is likely to see more open conflict in the future. We test the argument through a three-pronged quantitative research design. We first investigate the risk of any intrastate conflict to internationalize. We then split the sample to account for power disparities and a higher likelihood for internationalization of conflict within a subset of countries. We third track how the risk of internationalization has changed over time. This paper sheds light on the increasing frequency of escalating internationalized conflicts that poses novel challenges to peace and stability in the international system.

Authors

• Finn Lukas Klebe, University College London

• Nils W. Metternich, University College London