How Democratization Can Derail Federalization: The Case of Myanmar

• In Event: Poster Session: Judicial Politics & Federalism and Intergovernmental Relations
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Federalism and Intergovernmental Relations

Abstract

Myanmar’s brief political opening between 2008 and 2021 did not lead to a deeper form of federalization. The scholarly literature mainly highlights the restrictions imposed by the 2008 constitution and the military tutelary regime. Too many federalisms would have been one solution. However, why wasn’t it tried more in the period before (2008-2021)? Most say the constitution, some say political culture. (Fumagalli and Kemmerling, 2022) use a case of education reform that NLD itself was not keen on. I follow this route. In this article, I look at the discussions and political processes in the country to show that even within these restrictions more options were available, but rarely tried. Several factors contributed to the dynamics becoming structure-reinforcing rather than structure-altering (Imbroscio, 1999). In particular, the increasing pressure from the military made it harder, second NLD itself became pushed towards centralization. After reviewing all the evidence, it seems likely that yes, the Constitution put a limit, but more would have been possible. The fact that the political space was not used needs other explanations than an institutional one. I base my analyses on interviews with key informants and Burmese sources.

Authors

• Aye Aye Htun, Willy Brandt School of Public Policy at the University of Erfurt

• Achim Kemmerling, Erfurt University