Unpacking Latinidad: Latino Diversity's Impact on Voter Behavior

• In Event: Local Political Context and Representation

Abstract

Theories of Latino political participation tend to focus on the salience and mobilizing power of a pan-ethnic Latino identity. Past research has found that the presence of a co-ethnic on the ballot (Barreto, 2007) or the size of the Latino population (Fraga, 2016) can help explain patterns of Latino turnout. Fraga’s (2018) theory of electoral influence bridges these two accounts, arguing that Latino group size can structure both elite perceptions of the group’s electoral value as well as group member perceptions of the relative position of the group, ultimately influencing turnout. While important, much of this work treats the Latino community as a simple aggregate of different sub-national groups that make up the pan-ethnic identity. This paper takes a mixed-methods approach to critically re-evaluate these theories by exploring the participatory consequences of national heritage diversity within the Latino community.

In the U.S., the Latino pan-ethnic category incorporates individuals hailing from across Central and South America, along with the Caribbean (Okamoto and Mora, 2014). Recognizing this, we can conceptualize Latinos as holding a portfolio of identities (Garcia-Rios et al. 2019) that includes both their national heritage and pan-ethnic identities (among others). This conceptualization of identity complicates theories of Latino political participation by recognizing the existence of multiple potentially politically relevant identities. Past work on Latino participation relies on shared understandings of what constitutes the “Latino community” that underpins everything from elite mobilization efforts to the possibility of psychological benefits from affirming group membership through voting.

To explore the relationship between Latino group size, diversity, and turnout, I leverage the Florida voter file to conduct both voting jurisdiction-level and individual-level analyses. Additionally, I use a series of qualitative in-depth interviews with Latino voters to assess possible mechanisms. At the voter jurisdiction level, I follow Fraga (2018) and aggregate vote totals to Congressional and State Legislative Districts. At the individual level I rely on individual voter turnout. Using data from the American Community Survey, I create diversity indices for the Latino community within these voting jurisdictions and merge it to the voter file along with other key demographic and socio-economic indicators. With this data, I run simple linear and logistic regressions. At the voter jurisdiction level, I find mixed evidence of a relationship between Latino diversity and turnout, though statistical power is low. At the individual level, however, I find that going from the minimum to the maximum level of Latino diversity at the Congressional District level is associated with a 10-point increase in the probability of voting among registered Latinos, even when controlling for relevant factors like group size and the presence of a Latino on the ballot. These results indicate that Latino diversity may structure elite mobilization efforts.

Diversity is also something individual voters experience and it may have participatory consequences independent of elite mobilization efforts. To evaluate this claim, I treat ZIP codes as a proxy for neighborhoods and calculate Latino diversity at this level. Using the Florida voter file, I find that going from the least to the most diverse zip code is associated with a 5-point increase in individual probability of voting. Additionally, there is evidence of an interaction effect between the size and diversity of the Latino community – greater Latino diversity appears to attenuate the positive relationship between Latino group size and probability of voting.

Interviews with Latino voters provide additional evidence for the importance of diversity. Participants express skepticism toward the idea of a homogenous “Latino vote” and often note what they perceive to be large cultural differences between regions in Central and South America. At the same time, participants highlight how an issue like immigration can cut across differences in culture or heritage and unite the Latino community. These findings emphasize the nuances inherent to contemporary Latinidad and the need to further explore the participatory and attitudinal consequences of Latino diversity.

In conclusion this paper makes a series of contributions to the understanding of Latino political participation and identity in the US. By challenging the traditional narrative that exclusively focuses on Latino pan-ethnicity, I provide initial evidence showing how Latino diversity may have an independent effect on Latino participation. Using a mixed-methods approach, I provide both quantitative and qualitative evidence highlighting the importance of understanding Latino diversity and the multifaceted nature of Latinidad in the US today.

Author

• Alejandro Frydman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology