Inaccurate Beliefs Undermine Support for Solutions after Disaster

• In Event: Celebrating the 75th Anniversary of the ANES: New Directions

Abstract

Sudden events like disasters capture the attention of the public, opening policy windows where public support pushes legislators to address problems highlighted by the event. But when the public holds policy-specific inaccurate beliefs, such events can mobilize support for policies that inadvertently exacerbate the underlying problem. I illustrate this with the case of climate disaster, leveraging Hurricane Sandy as a natural experiment. The hurricane made landfall during the 2012 ANES data collection, and those interviewed after the storm were significantly more likely than those interviewed before to report believing in climate change. However, the storm undermined support for nuclear power – a carbon-neutral energy source. Through two additional experiments, I show that people wrongly believe nuclear power causes climate change. People might think they are supporting climate change mitigation in the wake of disaster, because of their inaccurate policy-specific beliefs, they are inadvertently doing the opposite. We are increasingly experiencing the effects of climate change, but preexisting attitudes and policy beliefs determine how people will respond.

Author

• Talbot M Andrews, Cornell University