Unequal Disasters and Uneven Response

• In Event: The Mass Politics of Climate Change

Abstract

Which segments of the population are the primary target of government responsiveness after adverse climate events? Conventional wisdom argues voters demand responsive governments in times of crisis. When it comes to climate change and related events, there is debate about when voters hold governments accountable. Moreover, in less affluent and unequal societies, disaster response activates vulnerabilities and makes them politically salient, complicating responsibility attribution. However, we know little about the geography of climate change vulnerability and disaster response in the Global South and, consequently, their direct and indirect political implications. This paper introduces an innovative methodology that leverages remote sensing and web search data to unveil the occurrence of events such as drought, flooding, and heat waves and the consequent responsiveness of governments. The output is a granular, neighbourhood-level perspective on disaster response efforts undertaken by local governments in four large developing democracies: Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa. The analysis reveals extreme inequality in disaster response within municipalities as well as an income gradient in the distribution of resources. We then uncover whether the patterns of government's disaster response follow a decidedly political logic. Using this new method to map vulnerability and disaster response, we reveal patterns of climate change maladaptation and its political implications in the Global South.

Authors

• Mats Ahrenshop, University of Oxford

• Anthony Calacino, University of Oxford

• Federica Genovese, University of Oxford

• Hayley Pring, University of Oxford