Ill-Informed or Up-To-Date? National Discourse and Public Opinion on the EU

• In Event: Elites and Public Opinion

Abstract

The European Union (EU) is nowadays a hot issue in national politics. As a result of years of intense crises, such as the Eurocrisis, the refugee crisis or, more recently, the war in Ukraine, the EU and the process of European decision-making have become objects of contestation in national parliaments. Existing studies have unveiled that mainstream political parties adopt pro-EU views, whereas extremist political parties defend anti-EU stances. How national parliamentary discourse on the EU affects public opinion, however, remains unknown. Often, individuals have very little knowledge about the EU. Evidence demonstrates that EU politics are perceived as more complex and technical than national politics. Parliaments, the biggest arenas for deliberation and communication, can contribute to the dissemination of information and arguments that foster individuals to formulate their political preferences. Thus, the national parliamentary discourse can, arguably, influence public opinion on the EU. We hypothesise that when radical parties talk significantly more and in a negative tone about the EU, public opinion towards the EU becomes more negative. On the other hand, we assume that mainstream positive discourse on the EU has no relevant effect on public opinion of the EU. By looking at parliamentary speech data and individual-level data from 11 EU countries between 1990 and 2022, we analyse how public opinion on the EU is shaped by the national parliamentary discourse. Detecting EU-related issues in parliamentary debates through topic models, we analyse the sentiment applied by parties when they talk about the EU.

Authors

• Rebecca Caroline Kittel, Free University Berlin

• Mariana Carmo Duarte, Institute of Social Sciences, University of Lisbon