International Engagement and Rebel Governance

• In Event: Advances in the Study of Rebel Governance

Abstract

This paper examines how rebel governance in civil war affects the nature and form of engagement with rebel groups by intervening foreign states. I theorize that as rebel groups engage in governance and demonstrate that they have domestic popular support, international support for these groups becomes more extensive. The magnitude of the shift in engagement will depend on the ideological alignment of the group vis-à-vis the intervening state, as well as the state’s geostrategic interests in the region. Using fine-grained data on rebel institutions and state-rebel alliances, and an original index for US geostrategic interests, I provide evidence for this theory. Further disaggregating forms of support, I find that diplomatic support to rebel groups increases as they establish popular support, while logistical support declines. I adjudicate between competing mechanisms for why this may be the case, scoping my analysis to US engagement with rebel groups.
Extant literature finds that the form of third-party intervention in civil conflict impacts conflict duration and sustainability of peace, so understanding what drives the form of engagement is crucial. This paper’s key contribution is therefore to shift focus from the supply-side of rebel governance focusing on the motivations of rebel groups in establishing institutions; to the demand-side: understanding how these institutions are received by audiences of rebel governance, and how material outcomes for rebel groups change on the international stage as they engage in costly institutionalization.

Author

• Manasi Bose