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Studies concerning the formation of political efficacy and participation have centered on the impacts of socioeconomic factors (Verba and Nie, 1972; Brady, Verba, and Schlozman, 1995). A prevailing argument suggests that higher levels of education are associated with political engagement. The impact of higher education on political engagement poses a dilemma for autocrats. On the one hand, they may recognize the importance of a well-educated workforce and human capital, since a well-educated population is crucial for sustaining consistent economic growth. Economic prosperity can, in turn, enhance the legitimacy and survival of the ruling regime. On the other hand, the extensive influence of higher education fosters a sense of liberation, creates exposure to a variety of ideas, and cultivates critical thinking. It also increases economic and social resources for individuals later in their life, which can ultimately lead to increased political efficacy and participation.
Despite the dilemma, recent decades have witnessed a notable trend of university expansion in autocracies. This raises a blind spot in the literature: Does university expansion increase political efficacy and participation across different regime types? Utilizing harmonized survey data from 135 countries and employing causal inference methods, including difference-in-differences and the instrumental variable approach, we examine the effect of university expansion on political engagement, comparing democracies and autocracies. Additionally, we analyze how this effect is moderated by various country-level factors, such as economic performance, academic freedom, and types of university expansion. Finally, we conduct a heterogeneity test regarding the cohort effect of the expansion. Our study contributes to the existing research on regime type, education, and political participation and efficacy.