2024 U.S. Electoral College Forecast

• In Event: Forecasting the 2024 US Presidential Election

Abstract

Prior to the 2020 US presidential election, we introduced the state presidential approval/state economy forecast model. Our forecast, released more than 100 days prior to the election, correctly predicted the outcome of 49 out of 50 states as well as the overall election outcome. The key components of the forecast are state-level presidential approval, based on multi-level regression and poststratification (MRP) estimates using more than 90,000 survey responses from June and July of election years between 1980 and 2020, and a cumulative weighted index of state coincident economic indicators. This paper updates the model and forecast for 2024. In addition to the 2024 updates, we have added newly obtained historical presidential approval data, which improves the accuracy of our MRP estimates and overall forecast. The paper and presentation will include our 2024 forecasts, associated uncertainty, and a discussion of what forecasts can teach about the influence (or lack thereof) of campaigns and potentially changing electoral dynamics in the United States.

Authors

• Julius Lagodny

• Peter Enns, Cornell University

• Jonathan P Colner, University of California, Davis