Naturalization and Voting Behavior as a Response to Discrimination

• In Event: Systems of Exclusion and Belonging among Minorities

Abstract

This paper explores the effect of discrimination and perceived threat on the naturalization and voting behavior of first-generation U.S. immigrants. Applying a difference-in-differences framework, we use the 2016 presidential candidacy and election of Donald Trump and his explicit targeted attacks towards particular groups of immigrants to study the effects on the naturalization and voting patterns of the targeted groups relative to non-targeted groups. Additionally, we use changes in Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests as a measure of state-varying threat for immigrants with large undocumented populations. We find a positive and significant effects for Mexicans, relative to other non-targeted immigrant groups and relative to other non-Mexican Latinos. Specifically we find an increase of about 13 percent on the naturalizations of Mexicans and about an 8 to 15 percent increase in the reported voting turnout of naturalized Mexicans in the 2016 presidential election.

Authors

• Jorge Soler-Lopez, Bocconi University

• Ireri Hernandez Carballo, Bocconi University