Explaining the Changing Political Alignment of American Catholics

• In Event: Poster Session: Change and Continuity in Religion and Politics & Public Administration
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Change and Continuity in Religion and Politics

Abstract

Students of U.S. politics recognize that Catholics—once a key component of the New Deal Coalition—are no longer a reliable Democratic voting bloc, but there is not a scholarly consensus on the explanations for this change. Understanding realignment among Catholics is important because the Roman Catholic Church is the largest religious denomination in the U.S., and with large Catholic populations concentrated in battleground states, Catholic voters can be an important constituency in presidential elections if mobilized. Studying Catholics is also an important opportunity to broaden the research literature on religion and politics, which has been predominantly focused on the political mobilization of conservative Protestants.

This paper examines the determinants of long-term changes in Catholics’ political behavior using survey data from the American National Election Studies and National Exit Polls. I conduct simulations using logit and ordered logit models in combination with sample weights generated by an iterative raking procedure. These essentially endow the sampled respondents from earlier time periods with the typical characteristics of 2020 respondents in order to estimate change in political alignment that can be attributed to shifts in demographics, affiliations, or attitudes. A complex combination of forces including generational differences, religiosity, ethnicity, ideological polarization of the parties, and various policy attitudes are examined as potential explanations for shifts in alignment. Although generational replacement is the primary driver of realignment among Catholics, there is also an ideological component. Partisan polarization has created a political environment in which ideological differences are clearer, increasingly enabling individuals to base their partisanship and vote decisions on policy preferences rather than on group-related identifications. Conservatives have largely deserted the Democratic party, and Catholics are part of this broader ideological realignment.

Author

• Stephen T. Mockabee, University of Cincinnati