Crime as a Driver of Authoritarian Attitudes in Urban Africa

• In Event: Poster Session: Studies in Comparative Political Development

Abstract

Does criminal violence threaten democratic consolidation in Africa? Though post-millennium development has seen regional gains in economic, social, and human capital, alongside democratization, persistent criminal violence in under-governed urban spaces risks undermining preferences for democratic governance. We argue that Africa’s institutional sequencing, often transitioning to democracy before states demonstrate capacity to provide public services in the form of public order, has enabled populist and semi-authoritarian politicians to win support through appeals to hierarchical governance.

This paper assesses the threat to African democracies posed by persistent criminal violence using regional survey data along with crime data, election data, and a conjoint experiment conducted in South Africa. Preliminary findings suggest that the region’s institutional sequencing has amplified the threat posed by criminal violence to democratic consolidation. Implications from the study speak directly to policy concerns related to the production of security policies that ensure that the continued development of Africa’s urban spaces serves to bolster regional democracies.

Authors

• Morgan Wack, Clemson University

• James D. Long