Mapping, Reimagining, Adapting to Dynamic Wildfire Risk

• In Event: Hazards, Disasters, and Their Aftermath

Abstract

Policy Problem: Extreme hazardous events in recent decades have tested the effectiveness of emergency preparedness and response systems across jurisdictional scales. Recurring hazardous events disrupt communications, coordination, and planning capacities among organizations involved in risk mitigation and response operations. Seeking to reduce escalating hazards, communities anticipate potential risks, reimagine their strategies, and reinforce their capabilities by investing in information technologies, training, personnel, and simulation modeling to prepare for unforeseen events. We view the evolving nature of hazards as a complex, interorganizational problem that requires multiple jurisdictions exposed to extreme hazards to align their policies and operations to achieve the shared goal of risk reduction. What types of systematic inquiry can aid communities in anticipating risk and engaging residents in developing sustainable resilience to escalating hazards? We use the recurring risk of wildfire in Northern California as a case study in building sustainable resilience to wildfire.
Theoretical Framework: We set this study in the context of complex adaptive systems, identifying information flow among organizations and jurisdictions as a catalyst for emergency preparedness and risk reduction (Smith, 2008a). We seek to identify the social and technical networks through which information flows across diverse groups, and gaps in this flow that are precipitated by variance in hazard exposure, levels of knowledge, and capacities for action. We draw on concepts of phase transition (Solé, 2011) to compare the degree to which existing laws and policies that structure wildfire risk reduction operations vary in practice at different scales and times of operation and where gaps emerge in rapidly changing conditions. We use process tracing to document how communities develop, acquire, and exchange information related to active wildfire events, emergency planning, and risk reduction plans. We explore communication and coordination of this information within internal or external organizational units to develop a community learning process essential in building resilience to wildfires.
Methodology: We use network analysis to identify key organizations with formal state-level laws and policies and compare these semantic networks with actual practices. We focused on the five-year period, 2017 to 2022, characterized by severe wildfires in California, and reviewed state-level plans that govern actions and allocation of resources at the county and municipal levels of operation. These documents included the California Emergency Plan, Strategic Fire Plan and Fire Hazard Planning Technical Advisory. Using data from these sources, we identified key organizations responsible for emergency operations and risk mitigation and conducted a semantic network analysis showing the key nodes and links among formal organizations. Drawing from this list of organizations identified in state plans, we designed a purposive sample and conducted semi-structured interviews with 30 leaders from community groups in Marin and Alameda Counties. The unit of analysis is the organization, and interviewees were selected from organizations based on size, authority, resources, and the audiences they serve. We analyzed the reported interactions among organizations, noting strengths and gaps in planning for emergencies.
Findings: Analysis of formal documents reveals two clusters of networks, with the state Office of Emergency Services and the state Department of Forestry and Fire Protection serving as central hubs. These clusters establish connections across agencies spanning state, regional and federal levels. Yet, agencies responsible for pooling and distributing crucial resources at the community level for residents requiring special care, such as healthcare and medical services, housing, and community development are largely disconnected from either of the two main clusters. Data from the semi-structured interviews with community leaders at neighborhood, municipal, and county levels of operation showed a distinct contrast with the formal legal networks. Network maps generated from the interviews trace information flow within and across jurisdictional organizations, highlighting the role of non-profit organizations at city and county levels that directly engage community residents in the exchange of wildfire information.
Policy Implications: This study, still in process, demonstrates that communities exposed to extreme hazards can and do learn, but it requires sustained investment in information technologies, funding to support community outreach to vulnerable groups, innovative methods, and a continual effort to recruit and engage community leaders to engage directly in building social networks that cross organizations and groups in at local, county, state, and federal levels. This study is funded by National Science Foundation Award 2230636.

Authors

• Seunghyun Lee, University of California, Berkeley

• Louise K. Comfort, University of California, Berkeley