A Primary Concern? Assessing the Role of Ideology in U.S. Primaries, 2008-2022

• In Event: Primary Voters: Sincere, Strategic, or Silent?

Abstract

Research on contemporary U.S. voting behavior focuses overwhelmingly on general elections rather than primaries. In general elections, voters can make use of partisan cues to choose candidates with aligned ideologies. However, in partisan primaries, such cues do not distinguish between candidates, and candidates are likely to be closer ideologically in any event. To what extent do American primary voters use candidates' ideologies when choosing among them? We provide new evidence on the extent and limits of factional and ideological voting in presidential primaries as well as statewide primaries for Senate and Governor. Using a population-based, over-time panel with primary vote choice from 2008, 2016, and 2020, we show that ideology does play a role in candidate preference and that respondents tend to support ideologically similar candidates across elections. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence from an over-time panel tracking Americans' preferences across multiple presidential primaries. We reinforce this with evidence that a sizeable fraction of Americans have ideologically structured preferences via second-choice data from multiple surveys in 2020 and 2023. In all, we combine precinct-level election returns, exit poll data, panel data, and open-ended survey responses to demonstrate the variable strength of factionalized voting behavior nationwide and within key states such as Alabama, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. We find meaningful evidence of ideological voting in contemporary primaries, albeit with varying strength across states, races, and the two major parties. Candidates' ideological positioning matters, but the relationship's substantive magnitude leaves substantial room for incumbency, strategic considerations, and other factors.

Authors

• Daniel J. Hopkins, University of Pennsylvania

• Gall Sigler, University of Pennsylvania