Using Birth Data to Analyze the Impact of Anti-abortion Laws

• In Event: Poster Session: Current and Classical Topics in Political Psychology & State Politics and Policy
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: State Politics and Policy

Abstract

After the Supreme Court's June 2024 Dobbs decision several states enacted legal restrictions on abortion. The impact of these laws on the overall incidence of abortion has been difficult to gage. That is because it is possible for women to circumvent these laws by obtaining abortions in other states, self-inducing abortions, or obtaining chemical abortion pills through the mail. However, a methodologically strong way to measure the impact of these laws is through an analysis of birth data. If birthrates increase months after abortion restrictions take effect, that provides statistically strong evidence that anti-abortion laws are reducing the incidence of abortion. An analysis of Texas birth data which appeared in the Journal of the American Medical Association found increases in the Texas birthrate months after the Texas Heartbeat Act took effect (Bell, Stuart, Gemill, 2023). This study will build on the analysis of the Texas data by analyzing birth data from states that enforced abortion restrictions shortly after the Dobbs decision. Birth data will be obtained from various state health departments. A variety of economic variables will also be held constant in this analysis.

Author

• Michael J. New, The Catholic University of America