Deciphering Russian Propaganda in Central Asia amidst the Russia-Ukraine War

• In Event: War in Ukraine and Its Implications

Abstract

The rise of Telegram has notably altered the dynamics of socio-political discourse in the post-Soviet region, acting simultaneously as an enabler of transparent communication and, more frequently, as a vehicle for state-driven propaganda. This dual role is especially apparent in the setting of competitive authoritarian regimes, where social media platforms are strategically used to reinforce public support. Notably, Telegram, alongside WhatsApp, has become a predominant communication tool in the Central Asian Republics.

Since the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, there has been a concerted effort by Russia to utilize online platforms for disseminating disinformation, suppressing pro-democracy narratives, and conducting surveillance on its citizens. A focal point of these propaganda efforts has been the Central Asian republics, aimed at garnering support for Russian military actions and mitigating international criticism.

This study probes the effectiveness of Russian strategies in influencing public opinion in Central Asia. It questions the degree to which attitudes towards the war in Ukraine have shifted from February 2022 to November 2023. The research delves into the operational dynamics of informational autocracies during interstate conflicts, exploring Russian propaganda designed to engineer public consent. It also examines the interplay between online propaganda, particularly on Telegram, and corresponding offline events before and after the February 2022 invasion.

We situate this study on two theoretical frameworks: "Breach Theory" and "Strategic Communications" theories. Breach Theory, which examines how disruptions in social norms and expectations can lead to significant changes in public opinion and behavior, provides a lens to understand the societal impact of the narratives we study. Meanwhile, Strategic Communications theory, focusing on the deliberate use of communication to fulfill specific objectives, aids in deciphering how these narratives are crafted and disseminated to achieve political ends. By applying these theories, we aim to gain a more nuanced comprehension of how information warfare shapes public sentiment and discourse in the Central Asian context, particularly in relation to the content disseminated through Telegram channels.

Our methodology includes employing a multifaceted approach that involves an in-depth analysis of content from both Russian and Central Asian Telegram channels (n=250 channels). This data is then cross-referenced with offline events as documented by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Next, we incorporate original fieldwork data alongside secondary source data derived from the "Central Asian Barometer" public opinion surveys. This tri-stage methodology enables us to thoroughly investigate the effects of both Pro-Kremlin and Anti-Kremlin narratives on shaping public perceptions within the Central Asian informational sphere.

This paper presents initial findings and insights from this ongoing investigation, offering a nuanced understanding of the role of social media in contemporary geopolitical conflicts and the mechanics of modern propaganda.

Authors

• Dilshod Achilov, University of Massachusetts - Dartmouth

• Ugur Kursuncu, University of South Carolina