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Past Stateness, Present State Fragility: Theoretical and Empirical Connections

Sat, September 7, 2:00 to 2:30pm, Pennsylvania Convention Center (PCC), Hall A (iPosters)

Abstract

According to the prevailing paradigm in international development policy, well-functioning state institutions play a crucial role in facilitating effective international aid. Despite a significant increase in the number of fragile countries in recent years, there has been however limited progress in understanding how aid can be made more effective in these contexts. Our study argues that one of the main obstacles to this progress lies in the conceptualisation and measurement of state fragility. We show that it is important not only to distinguish between the core functions of the state, but also to consider variation in the duration of state fragility as well as historical experience with stateness. By drawing on existing cross-national data and a set of original indicators, we examine the interplay of these different institutional characteristics via descriptive and inferential statistical analysis. We demonstrate that duration, degree, and ‘stateness stock’ are not the same, and that in line with our theoretical expectations, the lack of experience with stateness in the past century or so is a key determinant of chronic fragility today. Further, our findings highlight that some functions of the state are more path dependent than others. A shift in focus from a narrow view based on current conditions of fragility towards considering also the historical legacy of stateness is essential to shed light on the root causes of fragility and provides valuable insights on how the effectiveness of aid can be increased in fragile countries.

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