The Ukraine Ripple Effect: Implications for the U.S.'s Foreign Policy Agenda

• In Event: Ukraine and Foreign Policy Calculations

Abstract

In June 2023, U.S. President Joe Biden indicated that the will support Ukraine following Russia’s invasion for “as long as it takes.” This paper examines the implications of the U.S.’s unconditional support for Ukraine on other areas of U.S. foreign policy. Using the U.S. Strategy toward Sub-Saharan Africa and the Indo-Pacific Strategy as empirical examples, we argue that the US’s immediate prioritization of supporting Ukraine has undermined the credibility of its commitments to its African and Southeast Asian partners. The paper traces how processes to legitimate U.S. support towards Ukraine, based on Russia’s violation of the rules-based international order, trumped the material commitments to Africa and Indo-Pacific. Further, we question the cumulative effects of the U.S.’s prioritization of Ukraine and find that the U.S.’s ability to “modernize” enduring partnerships in each region is constrained by its ability to offer credible, strategic means that address the core policy concerns of African and Indo-Pacific countries. Finally, the paper considers how the U.S.’s indeterminate material support of Ukraine signals conditional allegiance to allies in the Global South and takes for granted the agency of African and Southeast Asian actors in crafting and shaping their preferences, including their alliances. In short, credible commitments to one partner might undermine the credibility of others

Authors

• Charmaine N. Willis, Skidmore College

• Emmanuel Balogun, Skidmore College