Deals to Be Determined: The Trade Bargaining Dataset, 1980-2020

• In Event: The Design of Trade Agreements

Abstract

The literature on trade cooperation has produced valuable findings and data collection works on preferential trade agreements (PTAs). However, one major issue has yet to be addressed in this field: Not every trade negotiation concludes with an agreement. To sign and enforce a PTA, countries must undergo a period of negotiation in which they discuss the scope and depth of the trade cooperation. There is a substantial variation in how negotiations end, but relevant research is insufficient in explaining the factors that drive the negotiation outcomes. One possible reason for the lack of discussion is the unavailability of the data on trade negotiation process. Therefore, I have built the Trade Bargaining Dataset (TBD). In this paper, I first indicate why a new dataset on trade negotiations is important and how such a dataset differs from the existing data on PTAs. Then I conceptualize the process of trade negotiations. I also explain the steps of how I collected the data and present the distributions of the trade negotiation process and outcomes. By far, the TBD contains all trade negotiations from 1980 to 2020 in which at least one negotiating country is from the Indo-Pacific region or the Americas. The TBD demonstrates that 60% of the negotiations end with PTAs, and 40% of the negotiations have not been completed. Among the 40%, 24% of the unfinished negotiations have ceased to continue. The new dataset offers a refined measurement of international trade cooperation and may improve empirical analyses in the future.

Author

• Huei-Jyun Ye, Wabash College