Aid for Incumbents: The Electoral Consequences of COVID-19 Relief

• In Event: Economics, Public Opinion, and Elections

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented levels of federal aid being transferred to state governments. Did this increase in funding benefit state incumbents electorally? Identifying the effect of revenue windfalls on economic voting is challenging because whatever conditions led to the influx of cash might also benefit incumbent politicians for a variety of other reasons. We exploit the fact that pandemic aid was channeled systematically to smaller states to develop an instrument that allows us to predict allocations based on variation in congressional representation. We find that incumbents in state-wide races in 2021 and 2022 performed significantly better in states that received more relief funding due to their overrepresentation in Congress. These results are robust across specifications and after adjusting for a variety of economic and political controls. This paper contributes to our understanding of the incumbency advantage during times of crisis as well as the downstream electoral consequences of unequal representation.

Authors

• Jeffrey Clemens, UC San Diego

• Julia Payson, UCLA

• Stan Antonius Veuger, American Enterprise Institute