It Takes Three or More: Civilian Wartime Protests and Termination of Civil War

• In Event: Dynamics of Protest and Mass Mobilization

Abstract

Moving beyond viewing civilians as resources or victims in the context of civil war, more studies have shifted focus towards recognizing civilian agency, considering them as an additional faction alongside the state and combatants. Acknowledging that winning the "hearts and minds" of civilians is crucial to winning the war, many studies have explored the factors influencing civilian support for either the government or combatants. However, civilians raise their voices not just to support either faction of war. They often come up with divergent demands that may change the dynamics of civil war such as pro-peace, pro-war, pro-intervention, anti-intervention, pro-peace process, anti-peace process, pro-reform, and anti-reform protests. While some recent studies shed light on civilian wartime protests, there exists a significant gap in systematically examining how various types of civilian wartime protests impact the termination of civil wars. Using a novel original dataset on civilian wartime protests that covers 24 African countries from 1990 to 2017, this study reveals that certain protests serve as facilitators, contributing to the conclusion of civil wars, while others act as spoilers. This finding underscores the potential role of civilians as veto players in the conflict resolution process, emphasizing that accommodating civilian demands may be a crucial component to bringing an end to war.

Author

• Chaelin Kwon, University of Arizona