Peaceful Change, Regime Types, and State of Emergencies

• In Event: Justice and Injustice in War

Abstract

While there is extensive literature on democracies reducing the risk of interstate war, the same cannot be said for the study of quality of interstate peace where domestic regime types have received considerably less attention. More generally, we argue that domestic regime types are important in interstate reconciliation but that their effect has to be considered in particular during state of emergencies (SOEs). SOEs are central domestic and international political issues particularly in an age of democratic backsliding. States of emergency can represent a critical juncture during which governments may accumulate authority at the expense of established checks and balances. We maintain that institutional, legal features associated with state of emergencies under different regime types can influence the prospects of interstate peace and conflict. On the one hand, a well-planned and executed state of emergency in a democracy can serve as a pivotal mechanism in upholding international peace and security. This is achieved by empowering governments to respond swiftly and effectively to crises, equipped with the necessary legal and institutional framework. On the other hand, it is important to note that while state of emergency declarations are crafted with the dual purpose of safeguarding the populace and maintaining peace and security, they may also engender unintended consequences, particularly in terms of the distribution of political power in some authoritarian regimes. Thus, while all regimes are affected by SOEs, the effects differ considerably. Moreover, building upon past literature, we argue that some authoritarian regime types can be particularly affected by the SOEs. Thus, our interest is not merely with the absence of violence in this study but also with reconciliation. We rely upon an original SOE dataset at the regional level for 24 Latin American countries (1945- 2018) and global data to demonstrate how SOEs affect the quality of interstate peace as well as interstate violence.

Authors

• Resat Bayer, Koç University

• Emine Ari, The University of Arizona