Future of AUKUS: Role of Culture in Military Alliances

• In Event: Alliance Politics

Abstract

In 2021, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States announced the formation of a trilateral security partnership for the Indo-Pacific region. This partnership includes the sharing of nuclear propulsion technology and the improvement of joint capabilities in cyber, AI, quantum technologies, and undersea capabilities. AUKUS drew the world's attention because of its potential expansion to Canada, India, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea. However, whether AUKUS would be as effective as expected is still a question. This research analyzes the effectiveness and durability of an alliance focused on the cultural similarity of allies. It argues that as allies share more culture in common, they are more likely to build a collective identity that expands the value of an alliance beyond security, making it more effective and less likely to be terminated. I create a latent variable of cultural similarity to measure the cultural commonality, as well as conducting primary analysis using variables thought to capture the "culture" of a state. I argue that cultural similarity can be captured using the latent variable better than using individual variables because culture is a conceptual factor that is complex and unique. Using Cox hazard proportion model, I find that as cultural similarity increases, alliance is less likely to be terminated, and more effectively deter potential attack from the enemy.

Author

• Saera Lee, Northwestern University