Does Position on Immigration Policy Affect Poll Victory?: An HLM Analysis

• In Event: Looking and Sounding Like a Leader

Abstract

The primary aim of this research is to enhance our understanding of the factors that influence voting decisions concerning electoral candidates in the United States, particularly with respect to candidates’ attitudes towards immigration policy. As consistent with literature in political science and current political events, the issue of immigration policy has garnered significant and distinctive attention in political discourse and underscores the potential to influence political outcomes in either direction. This research uses hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) as a robust multi-level framework of analysis to examine the predictive power of electoral candidates’ attitudes to immigration policy on electoral outcomes. Contextually, it accounts for candidate-level variables including incumbency status of candidates, stances on immigration policy, campaign messaging; and voter-level variables including historical voting behaviors, political ideologies, and socio-demographics of electoral districts. This hierarchical modeling of candidate-level variables and voter-level variables develops a nuanced theoretical framework that considers the interconnected relationship between candidates’ personal attributes, campaign strategies, and voter characteristics to uncover the underlying motivations that rationalize electoral decisions. Data for this study are collected from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study and the American National Electoral Studies Cumulative Data File.

Authors

• Atinuke Elizabeth Ayowole-Muili, Southern Illinois University

• Ayodeji Temitope Oyekunle, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale

• Akinbiyi Oyekunle, Southern Illinois University Carbondale