The Dynamics of the Partisan God Gap

• In Event: Religion and Political Behavior

Abstract

Contemporary politics in the United States is marked by increasing rates of secularism and partisan splits among religious adherents, with pundits and scholars alike often referencing the "God gap" between Republicans and Democrats in the mass public. While there is little debate over the contours of the current religious-political landscape, the forces that gave rise to it have been the subject of recent inquiry, with various scholars providing intriguing evidence that politics has – at least to some degree -- pushed Americans out of the pews (rather than vice-versa). We expand on recent attempts to better understand the dynamics of the partisan God-gap, complementing the more limited panel designs/individual-level approaches that have characterized many recent efforts. Instead, we leverage time series methods to understand the push and pull between macro-level social and political changes, partisanship, and rates of religious adherence over roughly half a century of American history. Our analysis sheds new light on the relationship between religion and politics in the US, offering more nuanced and definitive answers about directions of influence in the past while offering insights into future dynamics.

Authors

• Anand Edward Sokhey, University of Colorado, Boulder

• Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Ohio State University