The EP Elections in Southern Europe, 1979-2024: Reassessing National EU Dynamics

• In Event: Connections between Elections at Multiple Levels

Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive examination of electoral results in Southern Europe in relation to the broader European Union context. Utilizing a comparative longitudinal approach, the study delves into party change trends both at the EU and national levels within Southern Europe spanning the years 1979 to 2024. A primary focus is placed on scrutinizing the evolution of the classic second-order election theory's explanatory power in Southern Europe, with an emphasis on its comparative effectiveness with the rest of the Union.
The analysis sheds light on the dynamics of party changes in the 1979-2024 European Parliament elections in Southern Europe, offering valuable insights. Simultaneously, the article suggests a theoretical refinement that enhances our understanding of the intricate relationships between national and European politics. By exploring the intricacies of electoral dynamics over this extensive period, the study contributes to a nuanced comprehension of the complex interplay between national and continental political landscapes.
Furthermore, the article extends its scope beyond mere party changes by investigating 45 years of Southern-European party system dynamics, specifically during EP elections. A special attention is devoted to a meticulous comparison with national party system dynamics. Through an examination of electoral volatility and its internal components, the study analyzes temporal patterns of congruence versus incongruence in party system formats and evolutions across both levels – national and European.
Employing a large-scale longitudinal and comparative approach, this article advances our understanding of multi-level party-system (de-)institutionalization. It assesses the reciprocal effects, both direct and feedback, that spill over time from national to European party systems and vice versa. The findings contribute to an enriched comprehension of the complex dynamics involved in the (de-)institutionalization of party systems, elucidating how these effects manifest across different levels and impact the evolving political landscape over the extensive 45-year period under investigation.

Authors

• Marina Costa Lobo, Universidade de Lisboa

• Vincenzo Emanuele, LUISS Guido Carli, Rome

• Aldo Paparo, University of Florence