Escalation Ladder of Drones: Public Preference on Drone Deployment

• In Event: Drones and Autonomous Warfare

Abstract

This paper contributes to the existing drone scholarship by delving into the nuanced factors that influence public preferences regarding drone usage, specifically focusing on functional features. Additionally, we introduce a dyadic relationship perspective to examine public opinion in the context of intractable conflicts, distinguishing between states with complete and incomplete sovereignty. In situations where two states are embroiled in an intractable conflict, our study finds that the general public tends to support the deployment of comprehensive drones as the level of provocation by the adversary increases. However, this support is tempered in intractable conflict dyads characterized by incomplete sovereignty. In such cases, there is a tendency to avoid deploying comprehensive drones, despite escalating adversary provocations, in order to mitigate potential devastating outcomes. To test these hypotheses, we conducted a survey experiment using carefully crafted vignettes in the United States, South Korea, and Taiwan. Our findings reveal that the U.S. public exhibits a preference for deploying comprehensive drones as the level of provocation intensifies. Conversely, South Korea and Taiwan, facing volatile dynamics on the escalation ladder due to ontological challenges, do not support for comprehensive drone use at the highest level of provocation. Through this research, we aim to unravel and elucidate the intricate nuances of the escalation ladder concerning the utilization of drones, shedding light on their role in contemporary conflict scenarios.

Authors

• Sanghyun Han, Georgia Institute of Technology

• Hyunsu Kim, Seoul National University