How Does Wolf Warrior Diplomacy Shape Deterrence and Threat Perceptions?

• In Event: Foreign Influence Operations, Propaganda, and Sharp Power

Abstract

Can provocative rhetoric in coercive diplomacy effectively contribute to the sender country's establishment of a deterrence image? Existing literature has primarily emphasized the recipient's pre-existing beliefs and the sender's resolve and credibility as pivotal factors shaping the effectiveness of coercive diplomacy. Nevertheless, these studies have predominantly revolved around the concept of the threat, largely overlooking the essential task of constructing a deterrence image. The latter is a crucial component of an integrated deterrence strategy, which encompasses public diplomacy as a significant non-military instrument. Based on evidence from China's utilization of Wolf Warrior Diplomacy (WWD), this research argues that WWD not only portrays a threatening image but also aids in constructing a deterrent image among foreign audiences. Through an online experiment involving WWD covering various topics and conducted among citizens in the United States, Chile, and Argentina (total n=2,186), our findings indicate that, compared to the control group, WWD emphasizing China's commitment to safeguarding territorial sovereignty tends to lead respondents to perceive China as a source of deterrence, making them less inclined to support their country's military engagement in any conflict with a powerful China, rather than viewing it as a threat that negatively impacts their country's domestic or global order. However, when WWD addresses concerns about human rights abuses in China, respondents are more likely to perceive a threat than a deterrence. Furthermore, our study underscores the significance of political ideology as sources of heterogeneity in perceptions. Specifically, among conservative respondents in Chile and Argentina, WWD is more effective in shaping perceptions of China as a deterrence rather than a threat, in contrast to liberalists who tend to perceive China as both a threat and a deterrence. Conversely, in the United States, while WWD heightens threat perceptions for all ideological groups, it is primarily liberalists who are significantly more likely to view China as a deterrence, while conservatives do not share this viewpoint. In conclusion, our research provides a theoretical contribution that enhances our comprehension of the impact of coercive diplomacy on various dimensions of National Image Building, particularly within the context of the heterogeneity of content of WWD from sender, and political ideology of recipients.

Author

• Shengyu He, Zhejiang University