Ordered Chaos: The Roots of Political Centralization in India

• In Event: Party Organization, Campaigns, and Mobilization in India

Abstract

The Indian political system is riven by frequent political defection and floor-crossing, with weak party attachment among the party’s rank and file. It is estimated that over the past five years, nearly 10% of legislators have switched parties and contested the election. As rates of political defection exacerbated, the Indian system saw the effective number of parties in state elections grow from about 4 at the beginning of the 1990s to about 8 by the end of the decade. I argue that weak partisan attachment and high rates of political defection oblige top leaders of parties to centralize power and develop a direct connection with the voter to induce stable party growth. In the wake of Congress Party decline, especially from the early 1990s onward, smaller regional parties began to proliferate and win elections. With huge susceptibility to political defection, survival for these parties depended upon political centralization and developing a strong bond between top party leaders and citizens. To demonstrate this phenomenon, I undertake a study of close elections between regional parties and national elections between 1977 and 2007. The regression discontinuity design shows that smaller, regional parties are indeed less dependent upon individual candidates and more sensitive to losing elections through political defection.

Author

• Neelanjan Sircar, Ahmedabad University