Wartime Rallying-around-the-Flag: Panel Survey Findings from Russia, 2021-23

• In Event: Public Opinion under Autocracy: Evidence from Russia during War

Abstract

This paper draws on original data from a three-wave, nationally-representative panel survey in Russia spanning its 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine to study wartime rallying-around-the-flag in a non-democratic context. We know war initiation can boost incumbent presidents’ support in opinion polls, but who rallies and precisely why remain open questions, especially in autocracies. Our panel includes over 1,000 respondents interviewed three separate times, once in September 2021, again in December 2021, and most recently in October 2023, affording us unique leverage in identifying drivers of switching from positions of pre-war non-support to support for Vladimir Putin. We investigate the influence of political engagement, the information environment, economic considerations, social pressures, and autocratic efforts to legitimate war through appeals to traditional values.

Author

• Henry E. Hale, George Washington University