Analyzing Japan's Non-nuclear Posture with Analytic Eclecticism

• In Event: Nuclear Weapons Posture and Proliferation in Asia

Abstract

This paper explores the factors — the US-Japan alliance, and its pacifist national identity — that have influenced Japan's sustained commitment to a non-nuclear stance, despite being a nuclear threshold state. It also investigates how different international relations (IR) theories — realism, liberalism, and constructivism — interpret these factors. These theories often prioritize one aspect over others, hindering consensus.
In the absence of agreement among the three IR schools, this paper examines the reasons and explores alternative explanations. It analyzes Japan’s non-nuclear posture with the theoretical framework of "analytic eclecticism" suggested by Sil and Katzenstein. This approach posits that Japan's stance is a multi-causal case influenced by various interconnected factors, including historical, political, strategic, and cultural elements.
To comprehensively understand Japan's non-nuclear posture, the paper particularly scrutinizes Prime Minister Abe’s second cabinet period (2012-2020). This period witnessed significant shifts in Japan’s security policies, such as the reinterpretation of the Pacifist Constitution, expanded roles for the Self-Defense Forces (SDF), and an increased defense budget. Despite these changes, Prime Minister Abe's attempts to develop Japan's nuclear weapons or host US nuclear weapons on Japanese soil faced resistance, maintaining longstanding nuclear taboos.
Considering the substantial influence wielded by the Prime Minister in Japan's one-party dominant system, the ongoing commitment to a non-nuclear posture raises questions about the factors contributing to its persistence.

Author

• Danbi Lee