The Consequences of Elite Rhetoric and Action against Elections

• In Event: Legislator Messaging and Communications

Abstract

Does anti-democratic rhetoric and/or action impact politicians' subsequent influence and career success? We theorize that speaking---and especially acting---against election results increases lawmakers' publicly-perceived distance from democratic principles. This distance signals a diminished value in legislators' capacity to navigate the legislative process, which reduces their policymaking connections to colleagues and their electoral value to constituents. Further, we posit that this pattern is most pronounced in chambers with small partisan majorities; anti-democratic elites are a particularly strong liability for party leaders in legislatures where partisan control of the institution is closely contested. We test our theory in the context of American state legislators immediately following the 2020 presidential election. Specifically, we identify the effects of lawmakers' (1) social media rhetoric, (2) offline anti-election actions, and (3) attendance at the January 6, 2021 U.S. Capitol insurrection on cosponsorship centrality and electoral outcomes in the ensuing years. The results of these analyses hold implications for understanding the immediate consequences of anti-democratic behavior for governing elites as well as the long-term durability of American democracy under unprecedented party polarization.

Authors

• Abigail Hemmen, University of Notre Dame

• Emma Schroeder, University of Notre Dame

• Emily Anderson, University of Notre Dame

• Gessica Batista de Freitas, University of Notre Dame

• Rachel Porter, University of Notre Dame

• Jeffrey J. Harden, University of Notre Dame