Election Pledges by US Political Parties: Trends and Patterns during 1948-2024

• In Event: US Parties: Platforms and Positions

Abstract

With this paper we introduce a complete dataset of all election pledges issued by the two major political parties in the US for the period 1948-2024. We identify election promises that follow scholarly definitions (Naurin et al 2018), from each of the Democratic and Republican pre-election platforms, issued in anticipation of each presidential election since 1948. Consistent with previous research, we differentiate between ‘narrow’ and ‘broad’ pledges, and whether it is commitment to the status quo, or the pledge mentions a desired outcome that follows a policy action. We also determine the type of action contained in the pledge: cutting or expanding government, cutting or increasing taxes, or another legislative of policy change. In a major contribution to the literature, we distinguish between pledges that have a mass appeal, committing to affect the general societal ‘good’, and pledges that appeal to a specific societal group. Among the latter, we distinguish among underprivileged groups, business, labor, middle class and professional groups, and non-economic groups, including geographic constituencies. For pledges that appeal to a particular group, we identify whether the promise is to (1) add concentrated benefits; (2) reduce concentrated benefits; (3) alleviate concentrated costs; or (4) add concentrated costs. Each pledge is also coded in one of 20 distinct categories following the Comparative Agenda’s Project coding scheme. Finally, the narrow pledges are coded for fulfillment, following scholarly practices.

This dataset allows us to explore a number of research questions, addressing several important scholarly debates. First, we are able to show what share of US party platforms are dedicated to ‘pledges’ as defined by scholars and how did this share fluctuate over time. Literature on pledge-making (e.g. Håkansson and Naurin, 2016) has noted that the professionalization and mediazation of politics in established democracies is expected to lead to an increase the number of pledges that they make overtime. Secondly, we can determine how changes in ‘issue ownership’ between the two parties are reflected in the pledges that parties make on these issues. By analyzing our data, we are also able to address literature on the nature of political parties in the US, including questions about the extent to which party platforms are driven by particularistic interests, at the expense of what is best for society overall. Finally, we can ascertain whether distinctions between the parties increased overtime, as a symptom of growing polarization in the country. The latter speaks the argument that, particularly in divided societies like the United States, parties signal in-group preferences by promising explicit benefits to some groups while making commitments to ‘punish’ others.

Authors

• Petia A. Kostadinova, University of Illinois at Chicago

• E.J. Fagan, University of Illinois at Chicago

• Andrea A Manning, University of Illinois at Chicago

• Mine Tafolar, University of Illinois at Chicago