Competition and Participation in the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination

• In Event: Primary Voters: Sincere, Strategic, or Silent?

Abstract

Leading up to the 2024 presidential nomination, more than ten candidate had thrown their hat in the ring. Most notably, former President Donald Trump is the first former president to attempt to run for office since Herbert Hoover’s unsuccessful attempt to win the Republican nomination for president in 1940. Other candidates included members of Trump’s administration, such as former Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador/South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, and transition head/New Jersey governor Chris Christie, in addition to other viable candidates like Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Tim Scott. Despite, this list of impressive, quality candidates, in the lead up to the nomination season, the race is surprisingly uncompetitive. The question seems to be not if, but when, former President Trump will secure the nomination.

In this project, we examine the competitiveness of the 2024 Republican presidential nomination and its impact on participation. In particular, we situate this investigation by comparing it to the 2020 Democratic nomination, where turnout was exceptionally high, particularly when one considers that a global pandemic disrupted the nomination season. The 2024 nomination provides an opportunity to examine whether turnout during the 2020 Democratic nomination was a historic outlier or indicative of a new trend.

Beyond the obvious partisan difference, 2024 contrasts with 2020 in a few key ways. First, turnout will not be driven by historic disappointment directed toward removing Donald Trump from office; however, President Biden rivals Trump in historic disapproval ratings. Second, 2024 provides a “natural experiment” as some states have kept in place the convenience voting measures implemented during the 2020 cycle, such as vote-by-mail, whereas other states have removed these aspects of election administration and/or added additional hurdles to the voting process. Finally, due to differences in partisan rhetoric surrounding these convenience voting measures, we may find partisan asymmetries in how they facilitate turnout.

The extraordinary nature of the 2020 Democratic nomination creates a healthy degree of uncertainty about what the 2024 Republican nomination might hold. We anticipate that turnout will continue to be higher during the competitive portion of the race, echoing our previous findings. Our initial expectations are that Republican voter turnout in 2024 will not match the unexpected level of participation during the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, as states have eased or eliminated many of the convenience voting measures put in place during the pandemic. Likewise, the current calendar suggests that fewer states will conjoin their presidential and congressional primaries. Partisan rhetoric and heightened polarization have made the use of convenience voting measures, like vote-by-mail, more partisan than previously was the case. We anticipate that Republican opposition to these measures will diminish their use. However, the unprecedented candidacy and nature of a potential second Trump presidency leaves all possible outcomes viable and necessitates further testing dominant political science theories.

Authors

• Caitlin E. Jewitt, Virginia Tech

• Gregory D. Shufeldt, University of Indianapolis