Navigating the Storm: Natural Disasters and Legislative Behavior

• In Event: Poster Session: Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy 2 & Comparative Education Reform
  In Poster Session: Poster Session 2: Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy

Abstract

Natural disasters have increased by a factor of five in the past fifty years, driven in part by climate change (World Meteorological Association 2021). Natural disasters, like droughts, hurricanes, floods, and forest fires, may serve as focusing events, opening a “window of opportunity” for elected representatives to take action on environmental legislation (Kingdon 1995). Damages in the wake of natural disasters provide a powerful symbol of the impact of climate change disasters for elected representatives and their constituents (Weber 2016). Disasters can mobilize the public by pushing “event-relevant issues to the top of the public agenda” (Reny and Newman 2021, 1499). Constituents may pressure elected representatives (Barberá et al. 2019; Unsworth and Fielding 2014), or demand accountability for disaster recovery (Albrecht 2017). This paper explores the effect of natural disasters on legislators’ environmental policy records in the United States: When do natural disasters translate into political action? How does partisan identity shape legislative behavior in the wake of a natural disaster?

I put these important questions to an empirical test, leveraging a novel dataset that merges the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) declared disaster database with legislative voting records on environmental policy from the League of Conservation Voters’ National Environmental Scorecard from 2000 - 2020. I employ a linear panel event-study design to estimate the causal effect of a FEMA-declared disaster in a congressional district on members of the House of Representative’s voting behavior. I examine differences in legislative responsiveness by party. Elected representatives reflect deep partisan polarization in their voting records on environmental legislation to address climate change (Bromley-Trujillo, Holman, and Sandoval 2019).

Major natural disasters dramatically changed the legislative behavior of Democrats. Natural disasters have a long-lasting impact: five years after the event, Democratic lawmakers’ environmental policy scores are 28 percentage points higher than their pre-disaster scores, all else equal. In contrast, Republican lawmakers grow more conservative after a natural disaster in their district. In the years following a major natural disaster, Republican lawmakers’ environmental policy scores are 7.5 percentage points lower than their pre-disaster scores, all else equal. While natural disasters have the potential to generate consensus on environmental policy issues, Members of Congress are sharply divided in their response.

What do asymmetric findings along partisan lines mean for environmental policy in the United States? As we grapple with an increase in climate-change related natural disasters and a divided electorate, scholars and activists must find ways to frame environmental policies to appeal to voters and elected representatives. Natural disasters occur locally but have the power to shape national policy. For example, the landmark Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 is the first domestic legislative effort to combat climate change in recent history. Yet, the bill passed the House of Representatives on party lines with a vote of 220-207. Legislation passes by slim margins: a minor change in an individual legislator’s environmental policy position may have a major impact on national policy.

Author

• Cadence Willse, The College of New Jersey