American Support for the Possible Cross-Strait Crisis: Conjoint Analysis

• In Event: Public Opinion on War and Peace in Ukraine and Taiwan

Abstract

We undertake a conjoint analysis to understand the American people's support for a possible crisis between China and Taiwan. There are two unique features of our study. First, we adopt a conjoint analysis for a case study, which we call a CACE. This involves specifying the "levels" for many of the actual "attributes" of China and Taiwan, including aggressor status, alliance relations, regime type, but also theoretically relevant considerations like their racial and religious majorities. We then randomly shuffle levels and attributes to generate two hypothetical "profiles" (government) involved in a military crisis. Respondents then choose which side the US government should provide military support. The second unique feature is to ask respondents some questions to measure their racial attitudes, such as ethnocentrism and anti-Asian racial resentment, and examine possible moderation effects of these attitudes on security policy preference. Preliminary findings suggest aggressor status is one of the most important factors, but so too are racial and religious considerations.

Authors

• Rikio Inouye, Princeton University

• Yusaku Horiuchi, Dartmouth College