Nuke Pakistan? Norms, the Bomb, and Public Opinion from India

• In Event: Public Opinion and Nuclear Weapons

Abstract

How much moral revulsion do non-western publics associate with a nuclear bomb? Do enduring rivalries between nuclear dyads shape public opinion differently? We take forward the second wave of taboo research—one that found significant support for using the nuclear bomb in western audiences—to India through an original survey of 12,544 respondents across 200 Indian cities. Invoking the imagery of dastardly Hamas violence against Israeli civilians, we ask if the respondents would be willing to use the nuclear bomb if a Pakistan-based terrorist group were to inflict similar cruelty against Indian citizens, leading to a war with Pakistan. Despite presenting a worst-case scenario and a long history of hostilities between nuclear-armed neighbors, we do not find significant differences in support for the nuclear option compared to western respondents. Those advocating restraint in exercising the nuclear option argue for conventional security and moral values in equal numbers, suggesting that non-use can be associated as much with limited military utility as with moral revulsion. A much smaller segment indicated to refrain from using the bomb due to religious values, fear of nuclear retaliation, global opprobrium, and India’s moral prestige. Finally, we show that partisan leanings while controlling for various demographic indicators play a significant role in explaining the variation in responses on nuclear non-use. Our paper contributes to the literature on nuclear taboo, enduring rivalries, and public opinion on foreign policy choices.

Authors

• Chirayu Thakkar, National University of Singapore

• Rahul Verma, University of California, Berkeley