Green Transitions and International Conflict

• In Event: Climate Change and Conflict

Abstract

The impending threat of climate change on human development, conflict, and environmental sustainability is undeniable. A just transition to lower greenhouse gas production levels, while sustaining energy production, is imperative to address these challenges. Although the solution space for this balancing act is precarious, it is evident that substantial growth in renewable energy is essential, necessitating a reduction in fossil fuel usage. Despite the numerous challenges associated with this transition, such as scaling, storage, and material production, one aspect has been largely overlooked: the disparity in trade volume between renewable energy and fossil fuels. This paper aims to explore the potential impact of a green transition on patterns of international trade by diminishing the trade in fossil fuels and assess the implications for future international conflict patterns. Using a probabilistic model based on established drivers in the literature (e.g., Bennett and Stam 2009) and an integrated assessment model (Hughes 2019), this conference paper seeks to forecast the effect of green transitions on international conflict, focusing on the international trade pathway. The analysis will pinpoint specific dyads and scenarios where the risk of international conflict is likely to increase, quantifying this increase by percentage points through mid-century.

Authors

• Jonathan Moyer, University of Denver

• Collin J. Meisel, University of Denver

• Caleb Petry, Denver, University of