Dynamics of Vulnerability, Environmental Hazards, and Violent Conflict

• In Event: Climate Change and Conflict

Abstract

In settings with weak institutions and underdevelopment, both disasters and violent conflict are more likely to occur and to be severe. These events, in turn, have long-lasting social, political, and economic consequences with the potential to compound vulnerability to future shocks or stressors. Absent effective mitigation and adaptation, anthropogenic climate change could exacerbate the risk of such endogenous cycles of reinforcing vulnerability by increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. One roadblock to better understanding such risks is the incomplete and sometimes conflicting empirical evidence of how rapid-onset hazards impact the occurrence or intensity of violent conflict. Extending previous work on tropical cyclones, I construct a global panel dataset of major climate-related rapid-onset hazards spanning over three decades. This dataset combines, at a sub-national scale and monthly time-step, data on the incidence and intensity of armed intrastate conflict, disaster impacts, and physical hazard exposure (e.g., wind speeds, flood extents, and vegetation indices). I then estimate a series of fixed-effects models of the relationships between hazard exposure and conflict. This hazard-oriented approach overcomes endogeneity issues common in the disaster-conflict literature and facilitates understanding of heterogeneity with the type and intensity of the hazard as well as contextual factors. I will then probe the longer-term implications of these findings given projected shifts in specific environmental hazards under future climate change.

Author

• Elizabeth Tennant, Cornell University