Climate Hazard Impacts on Cooperation and Conflict: Evidence from Bangladesh

• In Event: Climate Change and Conflict

Abstract

Climate change poses significant security implications. Yet, while existing research predominantly links climate variability and extreme weather events to heightened conflict risk, emerging evidence suggests that climatic hazards can also catalyze cooperation within and between societal groups which helps communities to cope and adapt. This study addresses a critical gap in the literature by examining micro-level determinants of conflictual and cooperative responses to climate change in a unified framework. Utilizing a unique panel survey dataset from approximately 1,700 households across 36 villages along the 250-kilometer stretch of the Jamuna River in Bangladesh—a region severely impacted by recurrent floods and riverbank erosion—we investigate the complex dynamics between environmental stressors and individual attitudes and behavior. We hypothesize that factors such as risk acceptance, migratory status, trust in institutions, and received support may play pivotal roles in shaping the propensity for cooperative or conflictive responses to climatic challenges. Our preliminary findings reveal that individuals' reactions to environmental hazards vary, showing tendencies for both cooperation and conflict. These responses are influenced by the specific nature of the hazard encountered and individual characteristics. We discuss implication for future security risks in light of projected climatic changes under current climate change polices and highlight the importance of a holistic approach that concurrently considers conflict and cooperation in the context of climate change, offering a more nuanced understanding of its societal impacts.

Authors

• Nina von Uexkull, University of Konstanz

• Vally Koubi, ETH Zurich

• Jan Michael Freihardt, ETH Zurich