Efficacy of Conspiracy Theory Communication Strategies: Evidence from Poland

• In Event: Elite Behavior and Public Opinion in Eastern Europe

Abstract

Many politicians who engage in democratic backsliding regularly leverage conspiracy theories (CTs) to win electoral support and justify their policies. Yet the ways in which politicians invoke CTs varies. Sometimes, politicians dog-whistle CTs, referencing the history or context that gave rise to a theory without explicitly endorsing any conspiracy. Elsewhere, politicians “bark” at a CT, clearly expressing their support for that theory.

This paper uses survey experiments to assess how variation in CT framing strategies affects individuals’ willingness to endorse those theories and democratic backsliding. We draw on the case of Poland, where the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party invoked CTs to justify changes to electoral rules with the intent of disqualifying Donald Tusk, the leader of the opposition alliance Koalicja Obywatelska (KO). We leverage temporal variation in our surveys before and after the 2023 Polish Parliamentary elections, wherein a KO-led coalition ousted PiS, to assess how the electoral defeat of a party that engages CTs shifts support for those theories and adjacent backsliding.

Authors

• Courtney Blackington, University of Pittsburgh

• Frances Cayton, Cornell University