More Than 10 (or Even 14) Matter: Understanding Presidential "Swing States"

• In Event: Presidential Elections

Abstract

Scholars and popular commentators perceive swing states as an idiosyncratic handful of battlegrounds, dismissing much of the nation as irrelevant to presidential politics. The perception may deter political engagement of citizens in the non-battleground states, thereby limiting meaningful democratic participation in presidential elections. We aim to recast the swing state debate to capture more of the nation than current perceptions do. We evaluate state-level electoral behavior over 60-plus years to identify emergent patterns and to categorize states. Our results point to a broader definition of "swing state," and they have important insights for the wider debate surrounding the Electoral College.

Authors

• James Michael Lehner, Conservation Minnesota

• James Sieja, St. Lawrence University