No Globalization Backlash? Experimental Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

• In Event: Globalization and Labor Market Disruptions

Abstract

Canonical models of trade (HO-SS) predict that developing countries, being relatively abundant in low-skilled labor, should demonstrate stronger popular support for free trade compared to the richer, capital-abundant nations. These predictions have been largely confirmed; developing democracies are generally favorable to free trade, whilst the advanced industrial nations are said to be experiencing a globalization backlash. It is perhaps for that reason that scholarly research on the globalization backlash has largely overlooked the vast majority of the world residing outside of the advanced industrial nations. However, the developed versus developing country dichotomy overlooks important variation within the developing world, and specifically between the middle-income democracies and the poorest developing nations. Highlighting the distinction between attitudes toward the open movement of goods (trade) and that of humans (migration) across borders, we argue that the potentially more salient source of discontent in middle-income developing countries is migration. We test this hypothesis with an original survey experiment in South Africa and Zimbabwe, along with broader observational data from AfroBarometer. Our results confirm our expectation of a more nuanced understanding of anti-globalization attitudes within and across countries in the global South.

Authors

• Sarah M. Brooks, Ohio State University

• Soohyun Cho, Bowdoin College