Refugee Camp Unraveling: The Effects of Refugee Settlement on Communal Conflict

• In Event: Climate, Refugees, and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

As of the end of 2020, approximately 24.5 million refugees existed globally, with 6.6 million residing in sub-Saharan Africa, constituting 27% of the total. The persistent factors including civil wars between nations, terrorism, and exacerbated drought and desertification resulting from global warming contribute to the escalating number of refugees in this region. Consequently, it is imperative to examine the impact of their forced migration on both the host community and the refugees. Notably, about 22% of all refugees find shelter in refugee camps. While these camps fulfill basic needs, they also impose restrictions on rights such as free movement and employment.
Existing literature has explored the influence of refugee influx and camp settlement on host community conflicts, but it falls short of elucidating clear causal mechanisms, exhibiting rather mixed effects. Most studies either examine national-level host-refugee relationships or focus on the impact of specific types of aid from individual countries. In practice, however, refugees are more likely to be segregated into specific zones by government planning or UNHCR, rather than settling sporadically throughout the country. This study addresses this gap by analyzing the impact of refugee camps on the hosting area at the subnational level.
Refugee camps in sub-Saharan regions exhibit distinctive characteristics in economic and political contexts. Refugees in these regions are typically spatially separated, with restricted freedom of movement and employment beyond their designated areas. These structural constraints make refugees dependent on aid, concentrating assistance on refugees rather than benefiting the local population. This centralization intensifies competition over resources within the camp and/or increases backlash from pre-existing residents. Moreover, sub-Saharan Africa is marked by prevalent patronage politics based on ethnicity, allowing deliberate discrimination against the host community in distributing benefits. Exclusion of local residents from aid benefits or favoring other politically dominant groups escalates grievances and positions refugees as convenient scapegoats for dissatisfaction within local communities, which are challenging to voice against mainstream ethnic or religious groups.
By analyzing the impact of refugee camps and the proportion of refugees on communal conflict from 2000 to 2010 in 30 countries in the sub-Saharan region, I argue that the occurrence of conflict is not solely influenced by the influx of refugees but also depends on the political and economic context of the region. First, the economic context of settlements becomes crucial, as conflicts between groups may escalate if substantial aid is provided to areas with existing refugee camps. Conflicts arise when the economic distribution of the region changes due to unevenly distributed aid, not merely from the increased presence of refugees. Additionally, when refugee settlement areas are politically marginalized, negative effects such as tension caused by refugees are exacerbated, and positive effects are monopolized by the existing majority, attributing their dissatisfaction to refugees. The change in the proportion of refugees in refugee camps does not significantly increase conflict intensity when refugees account for a small proportion of the local population or become a local majority. Instead, the political and economic context significantly alters the impact of conflict.
Analyzing the effect of hosting a camp on communal conflict, conditioned by the settlement area's economic and political context, provides well-founded evidence that, on average, camps with more aid or located in politically discriminated areas can positively influence communal conflict.

Authors

• Heedo Lee, Yonsei University

• SEONG HUN YOO, Yonsei University