Intrastate Conflict Management in the Shadow of International Politics

• In Event: The Future of Conflict Management

Abstract

When conflict management fails, it is important to look beyond the dysfunctional relationship between the key protagonists. Intrastate conflicts are often embedded in broader networks of rivalry and cooperation, and the relationships of the protagonists to the “third parties” in their networks is often key to understanding variation in conflict management efficacy. This study draws from existing literature and examines key mechanisms by which third-party dynamics could prevent effective conflict management: veto-player problems; principal-agent problems; and proxy-war problems. It uses social network analysis, including Stochastic Actor Oriented Models (SAOMs), to model intrastate conflict management as endogenous to changes in the interstate networks of conflict and cooperation. The analyses thereby test the observable implications and demonstrate the explanatory power of each of the proposed mechanisms.

Author

• Kyle Beardsley, Duke University