Educational Realignment: An Analysis of Voter Trends over Time and Generations

• In Event: New Voting Patterns? Generational Shifts in Vote Choice

Abstract

There is a decline in the traditional conflict lines in Western Europe, disrupting previously stable party systems. At the heart of the shift in political cleavages is a reversal of education-based voting patterns. Highly educated voters, who used to vote for the ‘right’ constitute an increasing electoral base for green and social-democratic parties. To explore the underlying factors contributing to this realignment across education groups, this study uses comparative survey data from the European Social Survey 2002 – 2022, covering 33 countries. It further combines it with country-level data on the educational expansion across time. The study tests three explanations for the realignment of the education divide: (1) a gradual shift in political preferences of low and highly educated voters concerning cultural and economic issues, (2) generational shifts in the voting behavior of educational groups, and (3) a realignment attributed to the expansion of higher education. Although there has been a considerable interest in the growing importance of the socio-cultural dimension, this study underscores the structural shifts that underlie the transformation of political cleavages and their socioeconomic determinants.

Authors

• Roderik Rekker, Radboud University (Nijmegen, the Netherlands)

• Hilma Agnes Maria Lindskog, Gothenburg University