Generational (Re)alignment: Emerging Issues and New Voters in Western Europe

• In Event: New Voting Patterns? Generational Shifts in Vote Choice

Abstract

Voting behaviour in Western Europe has become increasingly structured by cultural issue attitudes. We examine whether generational replacement affects this form of realignment. We hypothesize that younger generations are more strongly aligned than earlier generations on more recently politicized issues, such as immigration and European unification. By combining data from the ESS and the CHES, we examine issue alignment across 17 West European party systems from 2002 to 2020. Our ‘Age-Period-Cohort’ (APC) analysis reveals stronger alignment among younger generations on immigration, LGBTQ+-rights, the environment and left-right placement, but not on the EU and income redistribution. We also find over-time increases in issue alignment for three of the six issues, but these period effects are more country-specific than the aforementioned generational differences. As a result of generational replacement, we expect increasing alignment between parties and voters on the left-right dimension and (some) new issues.

Authors

• Thomas Jocker, University of Amsterdam

• Wouter Van der Brug, University of Amsterdam

• Roderik Rekker, Radboud University (Nijmegen, the Netherlands)