The Commander’s Daughter: Support for Female Leadership in Mindanao

• In Event: Political Violence in Southeast Asia: Origins and Consequences in Daily Politics

Abstract

Steve Monroe and Risa Toha investigate whether and how familial ties to past conflicts shape current attitudes female candidates. Family ties to male incumbents have been a powerful lever for female politicians’ electoral success in the Philippines and beyond. While there is extensive on why parties nominate dynamistic female candidates, we know little about public attitudes towards female candidates with familial ties to male incumbents – especially in post-conflict states.

Monroe and Toha propose and adjudicate between two forces that drive public support for dynastic female candidates: political network and expertise. A common explanation for the electoral success of dynastic female candidates is that they can tap into their male relative’s political network to govern effectively. Another explanation points to the political expertise a dynastic female candidate acquires by having familial proximity to an incumbent.

Monroe and Toha assess these drivers of dynastic support through a vignette survey experiment administered to 1,200 Mindanaoans in the Fall of 2023. Mindanao provides fertile ground to examine dynastic politics because the peace that followed the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro brought a new class of candidates who were former combatants. These former combatants were not incumbents, but they did have a political network among former fighters. Comparing respondents’ support for female candidates who are related to former male combatants relative to incumbents or candidates without family ties to politics can help uncover the importance of political networks and expertise in shaping public support for dynastic candidates.

The vignette asks respondents to rate a hypothetical female candidate while randomizing the candidate’s dynastic ties and campaign pledge. The candidate’s dynastic ties vary between being the daughter of an incumbent mayor, to the daughter of a former military commander, doctor or engineer. The candidate’s pledges either to combat crime and insecurity or make healthcare more accessible. If political networks underpin voters’ support for dynastic candidates, then respondents should be more favorable of the hypothetical female candidate when she is presented as the daughter of the former mayor or military commander. If expertise bolsters support for dynastic candidates, then respondents should be more supportive of female candidates when their dynastic ties’ profession aligns with their campaign pledge. Monroe and Toha’s survey then asks respondents to share their thoughts on the benefits and shortcomings of dynastic representation.

Monroe and Toha’s analysis makes numerous contributions to the study of democracy in post-conflict settings. First, it examines whether candidates’ familial ties to former combatants is an asset or liability in the court of public opinion. Post-conflict elections may perpetuate the political hierarchies of the conflict era if voters value families ties to former combatants. This paper also probes whether voters discern between candidates with dynastic ties to parties and militaries. This clarifies whether the type of dynastic tie matters. Lastly, this analysis examines whether non-dynastic ties are in fact a penalty for female candidates. The absence of female candidates without dynastic ties in Southeast Asia makes it hard to empirically assess determine whether there are in fact electoral benefits to being a dynastic candidate. Monroe and Toha apply experimental evidence to estimate whether and when dynastic ties can improve public support for female candidates.

Authors

• Steve Monroe, Yale-NUS College

• Risa Toha, Wake Forest University