Slow Down or Adapt to Technology? Robot Replacement Risks and Policy Preferences

• In Event: Artificial Intelligence and Challenges in Policymaking

Abstract

In recent years, robot installation has been widespread across various industrial sectors globally, with the aim of achieving faster and more efficient production. However, there is another side to this coin – the risks of job displacement due to robotic automation have also garnered increasing scholarly attention. What policy options do citizens prefer to mitigate the robot-driven unemployment risks?

While numerous studies have attempted to address this question, existing research has certain limitations: First, current discussions primarily revolve around the risks of robot replacements in regular workplace scenarios. Nonetheless, there is an emerging trend where robots are increasingly replacing human workers in hazardous work environments (e.g. hospital cleaning and sterilization, firefighting). In this regard, there is limited knowledge about individuals' policy preferences in these two distinct workplace scenarios.

Second, existing studies largely concentrate on individuals’ policy preferences for specific social protections, such as income redistribution and universal basic income. However, in addition to the aforementioned policies aimed at compensating those affected by robot replacement, there exists a spectrum of regulatory policy options that can address the risks posed by robot replacement, such as investments in human capital, robot taxes, and robot quotas. Given the constraints of fiscal austerity that governments often face, which render generous financial compensatory transfers difficult, it becomes imperative to adopt a comprehensive approach and investigate which policy options citizens prefer during the process of robot installation.

Third, previous research has predominantly focused on Western contexts, neglecting situations in other contexts. As one of the largest labor markets globally, China has emerged as a leading hub for robot installation, raising considerable concerns about the potential replacement of human labor by robots. Due to variations in social and cultural traditions, Chinese attitudes towards new technologies and robot installation may differ significantly from those of their Western counterparts.

Building upon this, we specify the research questions: Under what circumstances (regular vs. dangerous workplace scenarios) do Chinese individuals tend to endorse government interventions to mitigate the risks of unemployment due to robots? Furthermore, which types of policy options do they favor?

To address these questions, we conducted empirical investigations based on the 2020 Beijing Area Studies conducted by the Research Center of Contemporary China at Peking University. We devised a framework that considers the extent of government intervention (strong vs. weak) and the approach to intervention (direct vs. indirect), encapsulating four categories of government regulatory policies concerning robot installation (e.g. compensatory transfers, social investments, robot taxes, robot quotas). Subsequently, we designed a scenario-based vignette survey experiment employing a 2*2 factorial design. The empirical findings reveal that Chinese individuals tend to support government interventions to address the robot-driven unemployment risks only in hazardous working scenarios. Moreover, social investments, characterized by indirect and weak government interventions, are particularly favored in comparison to the other three policy types.

This study contributes to the ongoing and broader discussion on the relationship between robot-driven unemployment risks and individuals’ policy preferences. First, it underscores that the installation of robots does not necessarily translate into strong support for government interventions in China. Support for such interventions only arises when the groups being replaced by robots can elicit widespread social empathy (high deservingness), thereby meriting robust policy measures. Second, while prior literature suggests that individuals facing robot replacement risks in Western contexts lean towards social compensation, our study indicates that Chinese individuals are likely to favor regulatory policies characterized by restrained government interventions.

Authors

• Ziteng Fan

• Jing Ning